Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 1.416257 1.470495 1.526465 1.588705 1.656185 1.727366 1.808429
2025-12-28 1.357418 1.430921 1.509138 1.599079 1.700306 1.811519 1.944086
2026-01-04 1.320912 1.408912 1.504850 1.618204 1.749836 1.899649 2.085748
2026-01-11 1.277106 1.374431 1.482528 1.613007 1.768403 1.950539 2.184993
2026-01-18 1.243860 1.349123 1.467965 1.614188 1.792413 2.007158 2.293320
2026-01-25 1.199366 1.308206 1.432559 1.587743 1.780215 2.017115 2.341570
2026-02-01 1.169358 1.282568 1.413451 1.579122 1.788293 2.051512 2.422728
2026-02-08 1.141279 1.257822 1.393954 1.568454 1.792324 2.079820 2.496593
2026-02-15 1.115272 1.234407 1.374850 1.556923 1.793937 2.104094 2.565629
2026-02-22 1.098904 1.221860 1.368246 1.560378 1.814543 2.154256 2.675246
2026-03-01 1.069236 1.192087 1.339207 1.533734 1.793588 2.145453 2.695407
2026-03-08 1.047670 1.171594 1.320988 1.520183 1.789267 2.159182 2.750467
2026-03-15 1.026294 1.151205 1.302798 1.506662 1.785241 2.174295 2.811206
2026-03-22 1.018130 1.146909 1.304661 1.519376 1.817638 2.243817 2.966763
2026-03-29 1.013470 1.146737 1.311596 1.538870 1.860215 2.331088 3.162867
2026-04-05 0.999425 1.134235 1.302113 1.535583 1.869763 2.368233 3.275126
2026-04-12 0.988355 1.125177 1.296748 1.537566 1.886804 2.417880 3.416384
2026-04-19 0.967474 1.103047 1.273618 1.514100 1.865074 2.403878 3.433792
2026-04-26 0.953961 1.090099 1.262250 1.506612 1.866754 2.427848 3.528812
2026-05-03 0.940275 1.076614 1.249795 1.497117 1.864850 2.445537 3.613112
2026-05-10 0.926838 1.063165 1.237041 1.486743 1.861052 2.459604 3.691468
2026-05-17 0.919242 1.057126 1.233997 1.489988 1.878172 2.510203 3.856265
2026-05-24 0.901544 1.037530 1.212255 1.465713 1.851350 2.482582 3.840847